waiting...
Russian economy, like the world one, is gradually getting stronger, its recovery, however, will hardly be fast. These are the conclusions in the report of the International Monetary Fund by the result of the December mission in Russia.
In 2010 the IMF expects moderate recovery of the Russian economy – the forecasted GDP is expected at 3,5%. However this index significantly reflects "the effect of low base" and resumption of reserves accumulation, note the Fund experts .Despite the relatively high oil prices, they believe, the domestic demand will be weak, since the problem of debts in the banking system will apparently restrict the increase in crediting.
Still, the IMF believes, Russian authorities do well with the consequences of the global financial crisis; in particular, the Central Bank succeeds in maintaining flexible currency exchange rate and takes measures to cut the inflation. "The government has properly undertaken counter-cyclic liberalisation of the budget policy, however there are concerns about the amounts of expenses and the possibility of their decrease in future. The policy in the financial sector was not energetic enough, however the increase in the amounts of guarantees on deposits and other trust-strengthening measures undertaken last year ensured the financial system stabilization and prevented the overwhelming banking crisis", -states the report.
The IMF states, the Bank of Russia should take advantage of the situation and cut inflation to the level below 5% by the end of 2010. "The Bank of Russia should be more ambitious in cutting the inflation. With 6% inflation the current challenges of the Bank for 2010 are not ambitious, moreover if they do not suppose to cut the rate of inflation as compared to the present level", - stresses the document.
As to the fiscal policy, the IMF has concerns about relatively high level of expenses in the budgets for 2009 and 2010 and the unbalance between the incomes and expenses becoming a long-term trend.
The IMF experts see as a main task the development of the "strategies of recovery which would allow Russia going in the direction of resolving of short-term and medium-term tasks".
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